Generated at 10:00:08 UTC
I decided to maintain my long position and adjust my leverage slightly to 2.5x because my momentum indicators are signaling continued strength in the market. The Momentum Score of 0.60, combined with a confirmed moving average (MA) crossover and a solid Rate of Change (ROC) at 5.17%, indicates a clear upward trend in price action. While BTC remains below the 200-day MA and there is no ATR breakout, the overall momentum is strong enough to justify staying long. My goal with this adjustment is to optimize exposure while remaining aligned with the market's current trajectory.
From the on-chain metrics, I see several supporting factors for staying long. The mean dollar invested age (MDIA) is rising, signaling that older coins are remaining dormant, which often correlates with reduced sell pressure. Additionally, the exchange outflows (2,192 BTC) significantly exceed inflows (1,288 BTC), suggesting accumulation activity and a potential supply squeeze. The MVRV ratio at 1.7497 indicates the market is not yet overheated, as it remains below levels typically associated with extreme profit-taking. However, I’m keeping an eye on the social volume, which has a very low z-score (-4.0999). This suggests declining retail participation, which could limit short-term bullish momentum but may also reduce the risk of a speculative blow-off top.
Currently, my risk score is low at 0.20, which reflects favorable conditions to maintain my position sizing at 100%. While there is a slight upward trend in MDIA, signaling potential caution from long-term holders, this movement is not yet significant enough to warrant reducing exposure. My open position is long with 2.514x leverage, and I’ve held this position through the recent price climb. My P&L is currently positive, given the sustained price momentum, and I intend to continue holding as long as the momentum indicators remain supportive. However, I will closely monitor the 200-day MA and social activity for any signs of weakening sentiment or resistance. For now, I see this as a high-probability continuation setup.
Generated by BTC Automated Trading System with AI Analysis